Canada's 2015 Economic Forecast

I'm a big surprises for 2014 include for picking up inflation but at the same time energy prices going down so what is surprising about that is usually inflation goes up when we see higher energy prices and inflation really ticking upwards from late summer 2 the fall at the same time the energy prices have really fallen now the Bank of Canada recently watched on in his interest rate announcement whether or not it had concerns for inflation and in fact was not overly concerned it seems like the bank is is believed that the higher inflation is to be compensated for by lower energy prices so convinced some of the things that a connoisseur worried about that with a falling energy prices we have seen an impact on the Canadian dollar and the Canadian dollar has become significantly weaker over the fall that's bad news for importers or anyone that can import intensive industry so far to manufacture and I need some supplies that are coming from the USA and about to pass along those cost to the ultimate consumer that's a potential source for inflation so
inflation is still within the Bank of Canada's target rate of 1 to 3% it's a little bit high they don't seem all that concerned at this point but it is causing stomach contents to wonder whether or not employees going to creep even higher so fine and at the same time within the dollar weakened there's two sides to that of course if you are a boy producing province then having lower energy prices is not good news for you but the fact that all these commodities are denominated in US dollars health to cushion that blow somewhat the other negative about falling into prices at the Toronto Stock Exchange has a large number of energy stocks on it though the market cap of the Toronto Stock Exchange is about 20% driven by energy companies and contrast the S&P 500 has only about 8% of companies that we do have some concerns that the stock market will be hit as a result falling and energy prices now of course on the other hand this is good news for consumers so if you have falling energy prices consumers are we getting cheaper prices at the pump as we enter into winter we're going to have lower heating costs and I put more money in the ultimate consumer is also good for manufacturers and we're seeing some positive numbers particularly coming out of Ontario Quebec and that's definitely good news for the stopping in 2015 I would expect a moderate growth in GDP so overall​  heard many warnings about Canadian houses being overvalued and if that bubble burst than the home equity the people believe they have dramatically Falls and so there are dangers of relying on a consumer consumer fuel economy even though we are expecting moderate growth in the range of 2.5 - 0.6 percent over the next year now speaking about the provincial outlook we can finally have some good news for Ontario what we see in over the past several years is that Canada's economy has really been led by the energy which province is the 2014 most expectations are that the highest growth is going to be in Newfoundland and Labrador other products that have seen Santa goes but I have been Saskatchewan Alberta so finally we're seeing a little bit of cooling in the energy prices meaning that the the users of bad energy put on with my faction are benefiting and that's good news for Ontario part of that benefit is that we're seeing some improvement in the unemployment rate in Ontario and I just been a very sticky number to try to move it seems like employers we're not quite ready to make that investment in human capital over the past several years as they came out of the recession end now if only thing that is moving so that definitely better for for Ontario now export-oriented industry is something that's going to do well this year with the combination of the Loom dollar energy prices if I had to look at particular sector as I would say that it would be exporting of goods and services for 3 is something that is looking fairly positive because there's more investment going on in the US housing starts to pick up and also expertise of machinery and capital equipment looking positive as well because the businesses in the US are starting to invest into more capital-intensive areas than what we've seen in the past several years right now what was seen as a lot of our economy has been claimed by purchase is made at the consumer level so consumer confidence and retail confidence is high right now and it's as high as its been the highest point it been since 2010 so we have forever scene warnings about the debt level in this country and the kind of them talking about is not particularly mortgage debt but its lines of credit and its credit card that now those kinds of that have particularly high interest rates and so it or consumers get hit by an interest rate increase which people are in his hand he's going to happen in 2015 then that's really going to hurt them it's not hurt their ability to service their. We may see some increase in pressure​